The Natural Gas Geopolitics of Turkey

This thesis investigates the natural gas geopolitics of Turkey and explores its interaction with the Turkish foreign policy making of the Justice and Development Party (JDP). Whilst Turkey does not have enough indigenous natural gas reserves to meet the existing and growing demand, the country does have great advantages, as it is located between the major supplier countries in the Middle East and Eurasia and is placed at the crossroads of an energy hungry European natural gas market. Therefore, the major aim of this research is to explore capacity building in the creation of relationships of interdependence between Turkey and supplier and demanding countries. Rather than introducing a dependency energy mechanism, this thesis offers the interaction capacity of the country with natural gas suppliers and consuming countries. In order to explain the relationship between politics and energy variables, the thesis establishes the theoretical framework of the study through the use of a pluralistic and integrated model, by combining International Relations Theories, the foreign policy making process of Turkey and a conceptualisation of the relations of energy interdependence. The descriptive analysis of Eurasia and the energy profile of Turkey provide detailed information about the existing energy trade and dependency relations in the Eurasian space. Hence, it explains the importance of Turkey in Europe’s diversification of energy corridors and Turkey’s natural gas market, which is considered to be the second biggest market in Europe. The significance and role of Turkey in the construction of pipeline projects (ITGI, TANAP, Nabucco, Nabucco-West and TAP) that go through Turkey to Europe, a route which is called the Southern Corridor, are analysed in the thesis. On the other hand, this thesis offers certain perspectives for the Caspian-Turkey-Europe natural gas corridor, focusing on Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan’s role in the natural gas trade for the energy security of Europe. Moreover, the natural gas potential of Iran, Iraq (including KRG), Qatar, Egypt and Israel, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are viewed as major natural gas sources for Turkey and Europe in this thesis. Turkey has historical and economic ties with the Caspian Sea and Middle East regions, which hold immense natural gas reserves that can be marketed to Turkey and to the European Union (EU). Mapping Turkey’s energy relations with consuming and producing countries, and defining Turkey’s geopolitical space, will not only help to develop its energy policy to secure its own energy consumption but also to manage interdependence relations between Eurasia and Europe. This is a new conceptualisation of energy supply and transit management of Turkey in the context of a new model called the Anatolian Gas Centre (AGS)

Maintaining the energy security of Turkey in the era of geopolitical turmoil

The energy security of Turkey is very much interconnected with geopolitical developments due to its dependence on imported energy resources, especially on natural gas. Turkey, moreover, is a natural energy hub for Europe but its ability to provide the energy bridge between the Middle East and Caucasus hydrocarbons suppliers and European markets is being adversely affected by geopolitical tensions in the neighbouring region. The Russian intervention in Ukraine and the security and humanitarian crisis in Syria are just two highprofile instances of wider geopolitical developments which affect Turkey’s ability to meet its own rising growing needs as well as its ambition to act as Europe’s energy bridge. This paper argues that in order to meet its foreign policy goals in regard to energy not only does Turkey need to ensure the return of peace to neighbouring regions, but also should adjust its own domestic policies as the first step for being able to respond constructively to external developments